Custom2006 MMA Picks

Bellator Fighting Championship 61

2012-03-16T07:59:00.001-05:00

I have 2 money line picks for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

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Bellator Fighting Championship 60 (RESULTS 1-0 +1 UNIT WON - + 2 WINNING PARLAYS)

2012-03-10T00:11:00.000-06:00

As I mentioned in my update, I originally had 2 picks for tonight. I released Alexandre Bezerra @ -115 on Thursday afternoon. That fight was cancelled when his opponent missed weight by 4 pounds. The line on Bezerra, for his new opponent, was too high to release to my customers. So, I cancelled that pick.

My 2nd pick was on Daniel Straus @ -155. He did well tonight in winning a unanimous decision, but I thought he would stop his opponent in the 2nd round. So, it's not a matter of Straus not performing as well as I thought that he would, it's more that his opponent, 12-0 Jeremy Spoon, did better than I expected. (the lines above are listed higher on my record at Line.com, as they did not have the lines available to pick for several hours after they were listed at several sports books - however, I did release the picks to my customers, at the lines listed above)

The big news coming from this card, for me and my customers, is that I called 7 out of 7 fights correctly. I released a 7 fight parlay that included Straus, for a line of +700. Once I found out that Bezerra's opponent was switched, I released a different 3 fight parlay @ +100 as well. Both parlays won!

Congratulations to my customers on a winning card! We gained +1.0 unit on our money line pick and another +1.0 unit on our 3 fight parlay pick. For my customers that bet the original parlay, after the Bezerra opponent switch, they gained +7 units on that 7 fight parlay. In short, if you bet all 3 picks, you gained +9 units on the night!!!

Bellator Fighting Championship 60

2012-03-04T19:35:00.005-06:00

~~I have 2 picks for this card.~~ Since releasing these 2 picks, both lines have increased significantly. 1 of the picks opened @-115 and the other @ -155. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks, but please be forewarned, they are pretty juiced now.

UPDATE: Bezerra's opponent (de Silva) missed weight for their fight, so Bezerra is fighting Foster now. I will now only have 1 money line pick and 1 parlay pick for this card.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

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Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey (RESULTS 4-1 +8.05 UNITS WON)

2012-03-04T08:55:00.005-06:00

Ok, I feel better now. 24 hours ago I was very mad. Even if we did well last night, the sting of the Thiago Alves loss on Friday night, is still there. I rarely release 4-5 unit picks and Alves was a 4 unit pick, Friday night. To have that fight all wrapped up and lose it by doing something so careless and needless, with 50 seconds left, is very hard to swallow.

Anyways, I feel good about last night's card. Not only did we go 4-1, we won both of our parlay's too. One parlay was a 4 fight +105 pick and the other one was a 5 fight +145 parlay. Both parlay's had Joseph Benevidaz on them and he fought Friday night in the UFC. So, all in all, I called 8 out of 9 fights correctly last night. If you played the parlay's for 1 unit each, you won +10.55 units and made back the losses from Friday night, plus some.

Probably the most impressive fighter on last night's card was Ryan Couture. I almost did not pick him, due to Friday night's losses as I was wanting to be a bit more conservative, until we gained back those losses. But, the more I looked at film on Connor Heun and the opponents that he has faced, I pulled the trigger on Couture. Basically, when Heun faces a fighter that is well rounded, he loses. Couture, the son of Randy Couture, is very well rounded and has been doing very well in his short career. I feel the line was inflated due to Couture having less experience. Couture has been fighting just over 2 years and Heun has been fighting for 6 years. When I noticed that Heun lost to George Gurgel, and that he has only fought 3 times in the last 3 years, I released that pick.

Caros Fodor had Pat Healy rocked early in the first round and he should have capitalized on it. Instead, he took Healy to the ground and in my opinion, doing that, gave Healy time to recuperate from the punch. Healy's career has been up and down, but I believe that is extensive cage experience helped him last night. It also appeared to me that Fodor's conditioning was lacking in the 3rd round last night and that is precisely when Healy turned up the heat and finished the fight.

Josh Thompson looked really good in beating KJ Noons. I went against one of my rules in betting when I released this pick. Thompson has not been in the cage in over 1 year and when a fighter has been away that long, they can be susceptible to "cage rust". But, Thompson gave an interview on Thursday, after the weigh ins and the reporter asked him about cage rust. Thompson responded by saying that..."at the risk of getting injured, I trained as hard as when I fight in the cage for the last 3 months to not have cage rust". When he said that, I knew he was the right side of this pick.

Lumumba Sayers performed very well last night and as I wrote in my write up, Scott Smith's only real chance of winning is a lucky power punch. But, as I have wrote before, I do not handicap based on a fighter getting lucky (like Kampmann did on Friday night). All stats favored Sayers in this fight, and the fight unfolded as I expected. I look for Smith to retire anytime now as he has went 1-5 in his last 6 fights.

I knew the line was inflated big time in the Ronauldo Souza vs Bristol Marunde fight. I think the line should have been Souza -300. Now, even though the side pick was out of my release range, I knew that side pick @ +140 was taker. Souza, in my opinion, is a bit over rated. He is good, but not nearly as good as the press makes him out to be. Marunde, who owns his own training center and his own regional fight promotion, is a good up and comer. His strength of competition has been similar to Souza's. I figured Souza would win this fight, but I honestly thought the fight would go to a decision. So, when the over/under line was released prior to fight time, I jumped on it. I thought Marunde would go the distance with Souza, but even if he didn't, I knew he would go over 1.5 rounds in this fight.

Congratulations to my customers on a winning card! We gained +8.05 units on our money line picks and another +2.50 units on the 2 parlay picks.

UFC on FX 2: Alves vs Kampmann (RESULTS 2-4 & -8.5 Units Lost)

2012-03-03T04:38:00.001-06:00

Well, this is by far the worst card that I have had in the last 3.5 years of documenting my picks! I really do not have much to say here, I mean my 4 unit pick on Thiago Alves was a sure win for 14 out of the 15 minutes of the fight. If you were watching, you know that he was dominating the entire fight and had it won and all that he had to do was play it safe for the last round...then, with less than one minute left, he tried to take Kampmann down and in the process, found himself in a guillotine choke and tapped out. Anyone who picked Kampmann to win, knows that they were very fortunate to win last night. Even he said in the post fight press conference, that he knew he was losing the fight, up to the point that Alves tapped out.

The Kyle Noke loss was completely unexpected as well. He was fighting a guy (Andrew Craig) who took the fight on short notice, with only 6 fights in his career and was making his UFC debut. Statistically speaking, when a fighter has those things going against him, combined with the fact that he is fighting his opponent at his home arena (Noke & Perosh were the biggest stars on this Australian card) his odds of winning are slim. Historically speaking, the statistics of a win for Craig in this situation, are less than 10%.

I handicap tangibly...meaning, I use all of the information/resources that I have. I can not handicap that a fighter will land a "lucky" punch or that a fighter with 12+ years of professional fighting experience, will make a careless mistake, with less than one minute left in a fight. These turn of events are impossible to predict. I pick the fighter that I believe has the best chance of winning, based on all of the information that I have. I believe doing that, will yield winning results, long term. My 3.5 year documented record proves that.

I apologize to my customers for a poor performance and I plan to earn back last night's losses quickly.

Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey

2012-03-01T07:30:00.002-06:00

I have 4 money line picks + 1 total pick + 2 parlay picks for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

UFC on FX 2: Alves vs Kampmann

2012-03-01T07:28:00.005-06:00

I have 6 money line picks + 2 parlay picks for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson (RESULTS 3-2 +3.65 UNITS WON)

2012-02-26T01:25:00.000-06:00

Conservative and methodical is the name of the game, to achieve consistent growth.

We went 3-2 tonight with a net gain of +3.65 units won. However, my parlays were not so good. That is why I release those as a free bonus and I instruct my customers to bet them small, if they bet them at all. With that said, The night unfolded just as I thought it would for two of my dog picks, which were my two biggest picks of the night.

I thought Bader was the right pick and as soon as Rampage missed weight, I immediately (within 2-3 minutes) released that pick to my customers for 2 units at +180. Bader controlled the fight and won every round en route to a unanimous decision.

Ben Henderson looked phenomenal in his unanimous decision win! He did not even look like he worked up a sweat while he handled Franky Edgar. Henderson nearly ended the fight two different times via decision. The tale of the fight was shown on the fighters faces, after it was over. Henderson looked like he had went out for a jog, while Edgar looked like he had been in a car accident.

Bart Palaszewski was simply out grappled tonight. He clearly won the second round, but lost the third round and the decision. With that said, Hioki looked a lot better than he did when he fought George Roop. He looked like a different and more fluent fighter. I will be keeping a close eye on Hioki as he was very impressive tonight.

Zhang got caught up in a non technical slug fest. He is a technical fighter and most of the time, technical fighters do well in the cage, but not so well in bar room brawls. Technical fighters can force their opponents to fight their fight. In a bar room brawl, anything goes. Zhang got caught with an over hand right during the slugfest and suffered his first K.O. loss, of his 7 year career. The probability of that happening was very slim as Tamura has only knocked out one other fighter in his career.

Gomi was not impressive tonight and frankly, I do not think he has much left to offer MMA. I thought he was worth 1 unit tonight and he was, but his performance was disappointing.

Congratulations to my customers on another winning card! We gained +4.65 units on our money line picks this weekend, going 4-2 overall.

Legacy Fighting Championship 10 (RESULTS 2-0 +2.1 UNITS WON)

2012-02-24T23:44:00.002-06:00

We had a winning card tonight, going 1-0 on our only money line pick and 1-0 on our lone parlay pick. Combined, I called 4 fights correctly as the parlay was a 3 fight parlay. Our earnings for both picks totals +2.1 units of profit for the evening.

The Audinwood pick was a bit juicy at -230, but as I wrote in my write up, he has twice as much experience as his opponent and his level of competition was far superior too. Audinwood has 2 losses on his record and both losses were dealt to him from his 2 fights while employed in the UFC. Both of those opponents rank in the top 20 fighters in the world, for their weight class. So, those losses are nothing to be ashamed of. Chances are, Audinwood learned more from those 2 losses, then he has learned from all of his wins, combined. Combine all of that information with his opponent only having 5 professional fights and I felt fine laying the juice here. If the ex Abercrombie & Fitch model puts together 2-3 more wins, he will probably find himself back in the UFC soon.

Congratulations to my customers on a winning card!

Legacy Fighting Championship 10

2012-02-24T19:53:00.003-06:00

I have 1 money line pick + 1 parlay pick for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson (UPDATE)

2012-02-22T11:04:00.000-06:00

After watching the line movement for this card and watching the weigh ins, I have 5 money line picks and 4 parlays for this card.

If you are interested in purchasing these picks, please email me at realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson - Feb 25th

2012-02-21T11:24:00.002-06:00

After doing a lot of research, I have 5 fights on this card that I really like. Depending on what the lines are, when they come out, I should have 4-5 money line picks and 1-2 over/unders + 2-3 parlay's for this card.

If you are interested in purchasing these picks, please email me at realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

UFC on FUEL TV 1: Ellenberger vs Sanchez (RESULTS 1-2 -3.7 UNITS)

2012-02-15T23:48:00.001-06:00

Well, not much to say here. Losing nights suck! We went 1-2 on our money line picks and 2-1 on our parlay picks. Overall, I called 5 fights out of 7 fights, correctly. The big losers were Simpson and Herman. I will start with Herman as one of the judges in the Simpson fight thought that he won and arguably, the fight could have went either way.

So, simply put, you have Dave Herman who has a career record of 21-2 going in to tonight's fight. Herman has only lost one fight in his 7 year career by TKO and that was over 3 years ago. Stefan Struve, who in 27 professional fights going in to tonight's contest, has won 15 of his 22 fights, by submission. Herman has NEVER lost via submission. Struve has been known to not be able to take a power punch and his fights with Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos showed that. Combine all of that with the fact that Herman is always in good shape, has great athleticism and has been training at Team Quest and most MMA handicappers would pick Dave Herman to win this fight. He won the first round convincingly, but he got caught in the second round and lost in a way that NO ONE could have predicted! (some are saying that the referee called the fight too quickly...would it have made a difference had the referee waited another 5 seconds? we will never know)

Speaking of winning the first round, Aaron Simpson won the first round of his fight with Ronny Marks. As a matter of fact, he dropped him to the canvas in the first round. The second round was clearly a 10-9 round for Marks. Nothing really spectacular happened during the second and third rounds. The third round could have been called for either fighter and one judge gave it to Simpson, the other two judges gave it to Marks. I told my customers that I wanted to put 2 units on the OVER 2.5 rounds, if the line was right, but when it came out at -275, I passed. The final decision was split...2 judges thought Marks won and 1 judge thought Simpson won.

Ellenburger dominated the first 2 rounds and the in the 3rd round, Sanchez started turning up the heat with his never ending gas tank, but it was not enough as Ellenburger won all 3 rounds via unanimous decision. I wanted to put 3 units on this fight, but when the line came out at -250, I opted for 1 unit.

My 2 winning parlay's helped the night, to not be so bad. Here are the 3 parlay's I released, for a net of +2.07 units won.

- Ellenburger/Simpson/Herman = +349    LOSS

- Dillashaw/Miocic/Menjivar = +132    WINNER

- Ellenburger/Dillashaw/Brookins = +175    WINNER

All in all, it was still a losing night, even with the 2 winning parlay's. For this card, we have a grand total of -1.62 units lost. I'm very disappointed in the way that the Dave Herman fight unfolded. Literally, the chances of Herman losing to Struve via TKO, has to be less than a 10% chance. There is nothing that I can say about Simpson as 1 judge thought he won the fight.

I apologize to my customers and I look to gain back the lost 1.62 units on our next card.

Thanks,

UFC on FUEL TV 1: Ellenberger vs Sanchez

2012-02-15T07:53:00.000-06:00

I have 3 money line picks + 3 parlay's for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

Cage Warriors Fight Night 3 (RESULTS 2-1 +.65 UNITS WON)

2012-02-11T15:50:00.004-06:00

We had another winning card today...a small win, but I would rather have a small win, then a small loss. We kind of got cheated on our last fight as it was stopped via doctor, due to Watson having a very bad cut on his head. So, as a fight fan, I feel cheated because we will never know the outcome of the fight and we only got to see 1.5 rounds of action...as a bettor, I lost the bet in a way that only 1 in 100 fights are decided = doctor stoppage.

As for our wins...I knew that Tommy Speer had two things going against him. One, he works during the day on his family farm in Minnesota and two, I read that he was having a hard time adjusting to the time difference of Beirut, Lebanon and Minnesota. Anytime a fighter can not commit full time to training, especially at the pro level, that is a red flag for me. If Speer would dedicate himself full time to training, he could make it back to the UFC. As I said in my write up, this pick was more of picking against Speer then it was for picking Mats Nilsson. With that said, Nilsson is no joke. He holds a black belt in Judo, a brown belt in BJJ and is experienced in submission wrestling and shoot fighting. The only reason I did not advise to make this a 2 or 3 unit bet, was that I did have concerns about his short pro career record of 7-1-1. Had he had another 5 pro fights, I would have advised this to be a higher bet.

I liked Victor Cheng over Matt Gabel, mainly because of their strength of competition differences. Cheng has fought tougher competition, by far. Cheng is also a more careful and calculated fighter, whereas Gabel is unorthodox and "wild" in the cage. Also, I found video last night where Gabel said that he only had 4 weeks to prepare for this fight as he accepted it on short notice, which is also another red flag for me. In that video, he arrogantly said that he did not bother doing any research on Cheng and that he was not worried about the fight at all. He said, "he was just going to do, what he does" and he said "he would figure it out in the cage". Well, that said and based on his comments on his FaceBook, I got the impression that he is in the fight business to be a "local celebrity" or something. He seems way to cocky and arrogant. For me, Cheng was the easy pick here.

It was a small profit day, but I will take it.

Congratulations to my customers on another winning card!

Cage Warriors Fight Night 3

2012-02-11T13:02:00.001-06:00

I will have 3 picks for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

realcustom2006@gmail.com

Thanks

XFC 16: High Stakes (RESULTS 3-1 +8.3 UNITS WON)

2012-02-11T08:59:00.002-06:00

We had another winning card last night, going 3-1 and earning 8.3 units for the night. Honestly, I was only going to release 3 picks, but I could not help myself with Fickett at +220. As my customers know, in my write ups, I said if we go 3-0 on the first 3 picks, to go ahead and lay 1 unit on Fickett. Well, Fickett lost in embarrassing fashion, very quickly (40 seconds). The loss sucks, but it was house money and I believed the pick was well worth +220.

Gormley dominated with his wrestling as I thought that he would. Sayles was getting too much love because of his physical size (6'5"/300 lbs.) and his amateur win record (10-0). After reviewing his records, you can see that most of his opponents were much smaller than him physically and had sub par fight records, of their own. Combine that with Gormley's experience (UFC vet) and wrestling pedigree and we had a winner.

You will see Chris Wright in the UFC soon...probably later this year. He simply dominated Len Cook from bell to bell. After doing film study for this match up, I knew Cook was in over his head. Wright is a more well rounded fighter and has a bit more experience...combine that with his athleticism and aggression and Wright was an easy winner last night.

In the Samman/Gomez fight, I was surprised at how well Samman dominated Gomez. I knew he had all of the potential to win this fight, hence the reason I advised the one unit bet, but I had no idea that he would be so explosive and aggressive. He usually fights at a consistent and calculated pace. With Gomez being a BJJ black belt and with 9 of his 12 wins coming via submission, he is very one dimensional and I thought that Samman would want to keep the fight standing to avoid Gomez BJJ game. I think the reason that Gomez was favored, was because he had twice as many fights as Samman. While experience is an important aspect of handicapping, one needs to look at the "strength of competition" of that experience.

Congratulations to my customers on another winning card!

If you want an MMA handicapper that actually understands MMA and handicapping, and you want a handicapper that handicaps all MMA events, not just the ever growing and popular UFC, email me for my prices and any questions that you may have. Many MMA "handicappers" are coming out of the "wood work" as of late, due to the UFC's recent growth in popularity. 99% of the time, these "bandwagon jumpers" are not true MMA fans (they are UFC fans) and they only handicap UFC events, as that is what is popular right now. I have been personally involved in MMA for 17 years and I have been handicapping 20+ different MMA organizations for 3.5 years, successfully.

Contact me when you are ready to win: realcustom2006@gmail.com

XFC 16: High Stakes - Fickett vs Varner

2012-02-10T17:42:00.001-06:00

I will have 3-4 picks for this card. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

Thanks

UFC 143: Condit vs Diaz (RESULTS 2-0 +7 UNITS WON)

2012-02-05T01:34:00.003-06:00

Tonight we had a bit of redemption for last week's card. We went 2-0 on our money line picks and 1-0 on the bonus 2 fight parlay pick for an overall 3-0 night with +9 units won.

Initially, I thought I was going to release 4 money line picks, but I found out that one of the fighters I was going to pick, had a bad weight cut during his training camp. In my experience in MMA, fighters who have a bad weight cut, usually fair poorly in their fights. Most fighters lose 15-20+ pounds for their fights. If they have a good dietician employed during their training camp, it makes the weight cut go well, but if they do not, or if their are other reasons (i.e. minor injury that prevents/limits cardio workouts) or dropping to lower weight class for the first time, they can have a difficult time dropping the weight. When this happens, it is best to pass on the fight and that's what I did.

Now, for my 2 winning money line picks. As I told my customers, I really do not like making picks over -200 and I try to never make picks over -250. Well, sometimes you just have too and tonight was one of those nights. I'm sure most casual MMA fans had never heard of Stephen Thompson. Not to go in to a long post fight write up, like I did for my customers in my pre fight write up, but Thompson entered this fight, his first in the UFC, with a professional fighting record of 66-0. He is a highly decorated martial artist with 24 years experience.. He holds black belts in Jujitsu, Kempo and Karate. With that said, after doing several hours of film study on him and his opponent, 7-1 Dan Stittgen, a short notice opponent for Thompson, (his original opponent was injured during his training camp) I felt 100% comfortable in laying 5 units on Thompson. It was a great pick as Thompson K.O.'d Stittgen with a high light reel head kick, in the first round. I should mention that I did pick the UNDER 1.5 for this fight as well at HandicappersWatchdog.com. I did not make this same pick at Line.com as they did not have the UNDER 1.5 available, for some reason?

Edwin Figueroa was my other money line pick. I was disappointed in his performance, but a win is a win. I felt Figueroa had fought tougher competition then Caceras and had more overall MMA fighting experience.

As for my 2 fight parlay pick, I had Dustin Poirier and Edwin Figueroa for 2 units at -105 odds. Some of my customers got that parlay at +100 to +110, depending on what sports book they use. I felt that Poirier would dominate and win the fight, but at -475, I would never bet or release a money line pick at those odds. Edwin Figueroa was my other pick for this parlay.

Congratulations to my customers on a winning night!

If anyone has any questions about my services, please do not hesitate to email me.

Thanks

UFC 143: Condit vs Diaz

2012-02-02T07:37:00.000-06:00

I will have 4 money line picks for this card + 1 parlay pick. The parlay pick is a 2 fight parlay @ -105 for 2 units. Email me if you are interested in purchasing these picks.

Thanks

UFC on FOX Sports - 2 (RESULTS 0-3)

2012-01-28T22:17:00.002-06:00

Well, well, well...it figures that it would work out like this. The very card that I upgrade my Pro status, to Premium status, at the sports monitors that I use, is the same card that I go 0-3! For what it's worth, I have not went "0 for" for a long, long time. As a matter of fact, it has only happened three times, in almost 3 years. I guess it works out that way sometimes?

No big deal as this game is one of longevity and not spontaneity...

On the bright side, my one winning pick for +135 for 2 units (Oliveira/Dunham/Sonnen), was my parlay pick. So, the night was not a total loss after all. Unfortunately, the parlay pick will not be represented, as they never will be, at the sports monitors that I use to document & verify my pick history.

As for my losses, Shane Roller came on strong in the 3rd round. A "day late and a dollar short", if you will. No one could ever convince me that Michael Johnson could win that fight...but he did? No excuses here, other than Roller completely underperformed.

Now, as for George Roop vs Cub Swanson...WOW. I thought that Roop's advantage in height and the fact that he has been steadily improving and staying active as a fighter, combined with Swanson's lack of activity, and his "lax luster" interest, when he fights, would equate to a Roop win. I was wrong.

I thought that Russow was getting too much love in this fight as he is a Chicago native...a Chicago police officer, none the less. I tend to always go against guys who do not train full time, as a fighter. I feel that if they only give 50%, they will only receive 50% in return. Einemo is no joke...or at least he was not before tonight. Anyone who wins the Submission Wrestling World Championship, is a serious MMA competitor. He is the only man to ever defeat Roger Gracie in the ADCC Combat Tournament. He is a BJJ Black Belt. This alone should tell MMA fans he was the smart pick!

My logic, as described above, did not prove well tonight. Good thing for my subscribers, ...this is a marathon and not a sprint!

Picks for UFC 143 coming soon...

UFC on FOX Sports - 2

2012-01-25T10:43:00.000-06:00

The next MMA event that I will have picks for, will be "UFC on FOX Sports - 2" on January 28th. I will probably have 3-4 moneyline picks + 1 total pick for this event. Also, even though the sports monitors do not monitor parlay picks, as a bonus, I will have at least 1 parlay pick in the +150 range.